The Predictive Failures of Conrad Black

I need not belabour the well known fact that Conrad Black is a very brilliant person and historian. I have followed him for a very long time despite the fact that we are political opposites. When he was supporting Gatsha Buthelezi and implicitly Apartheid South Africa and calling the African National Congress a terrorist organization, I was supporting Nelson Mandela and the ANC and opposing Apartheid. I have all of Blacks books, all of which are very well researched and written.

The evidence is that Black has a tendency to like and support despicable, racist and right-wing historic figures which really are more or less birds of the same feathers, except perhaps Franklin Delano Roosevelt. His support for Donald Trump, the most racist and clueless politician of the modern era clearly points to Black’s other-worldliness.

What  is intriguing is that nobody has ever told Conrad Black to confine his opinions despite his constitutional right to freedom of expression and speech to historical musings rather than to futuristic forecasts. When it comes to reading future political or legal trends, Black is an utter failure. Examples are legion. He had predicted that he would beat his criminal charges hands down. He was convicted. He predicted that Barack Obama would implode and Hillary would win, that didn’t happen. He predicted that John McCain  would slaughter Obama. That didn’t happen. He believed that Mitt Romney would be a walk-over Obama. The world knows the result. But Black continues to misfire regardless.

Now Black has been touting Trump. On the basis of Black’s predictive record as itemized above, this too will be a disaster. If Trump wins the election against Hillary, I will walk from Cape town to Cairo and if Clinton wins, Black will walk from Halifax to Vancouver. All protocols observed.

Dr. Munyonzwe Hamalengwa

School of Law
Zambian Open University